Demographic Forecasting for Local Authorities


School of study	Hertfordshire Business School
Course length	Part Time

Entry requirements

All course delegates should have an understanding of general numerical/statistical concepts such as rates, percentages, mean, standard deviation, correlation, etc, as well as access to and basic competence with MS Excel.

About the course

The topics to be covered include a number of core methods along with approaches for quantifying uncertainty and an overview of a number of modelling techniques, as listed below.

Age distributions
Birth, mortality & migration rates
Graphical exploration and presentation of data
Trends in data
Data preparation
Data quality – detecting errors in data
Effective communication of results

Quantifying Uncertainty

Estimating variability
Interval estimation
Sensitivity analysis
Monte-Carlo simulation

Overviews of modelling techniques

Autocorrelation & seasonality
Univariate time series models
“Point in time” predictive models
Demographic forecasting models
Multivariate/hybrid models

This one-day course aims to give delegates an understanding of, and ability to use, a range of techniques applicable to forecasting problems, with a particular emphasis on predicting demand for local government services.

Teaching methods

The course will take place in a live learning online format. As well as delivery of technical material, the course will include on-screen demonstration of techniques, practical exercises using MS Excel, and group discussion.

Course fees

Dates can be organised if an organisation have a group of people wanting to take this course.

£TBA