Demographic Forecasting for Local Authorities
About the course
The topics to be covered include a number of core methods along with approaches for quantifying uncertainty and an overview of a number of modelling techniques, as listed below.
- Age distributions
- Birth, mortality & migration rates
- Graphical exploration and presentation of data
- Trends in data
- Data preparation
- Data quality – detecting errors in data
- Effective communication of results
- Estimating variability
- Interval estimation
- Sensitivity analysis
- Monte-Carlo simulation
Overviews of modelling techniques
- Autocorrelation & seasonality
- Univariate time series models
- “Point in time” predictive models
- Demographic forecasting models
- Multivariate/hybrid models
This one-day course aims to give delegates an understanding of, and ability to use, a range of techniques applicable to forecasting problems, with a particular emphasis on predicting demand for local government services.
The course will take place in a live learning online format. As well as delivery of technical material, the course will include on-screen demonstration of techniques, practical exercises using MS Excel, and group discussion.
Dates can be organised if an organisation have a group of people wanting to take this course.