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Demographic Forecasting for Local Authorities

About the course

The topics to be covered include a number of core methods along with approaches for quantifying uncertainty and an overview of a number of modelling techniques, as listed below. 

  • Age distributions
  • Birth, mortality & migration rates
  • Graphical exploration and presentation of data
  • Trends in data
  • Data preparation
  • Data quality – detecting errors in data
  • Effective communication of results

Quantifying Uncertainty

  • Estimating variability
  • Interval estimation
  • Sensitivity analysis
  • Monte-Carlo simulation

Overviews of modelling techniques

  • Autocorrelation & seasonality
  • Univariate time series models
  • “Point in time” predictive models
  • Demographic forecasting models
  • Multivariate/hybrid models

This one-day course aims to give delegates an understanding of, and ability to use, a range of techniques applicable to forecasting problems, with a particular emphasis on predicting demand for local government services.

Teaching methods

The course will take place in a live learning online format.  As well as delivery of technical material, the course will include on-screen demonstration of techniques, practical exercises using MS Excel, and group discussion.

Course fees

Dates can be organised if an organisation have a group of people wanting to take this course.